Not all bear markets are created equal and the identical could be mentioned when evaluating the 2018 crypto bear market, and the present 2022 bear market.
Change BTC steadiness 2018-2019
Following the height of the bull run in Dec. 2017, Bitcoin (BTC) worth dropped beneath $10,000, and what adopted from Jan. 2018 to This fall 2019 was a big influx of BTC onto exchanges.
Beginning with round 1.7 million BTC on exchanges in Jan. 2018, by the top of 2019 exchanges held an estimated 3 million BTC.
Change BTC steadiness 2022
Not like its 2018 predecessor, the bear market of 2022 has proven itself to be a very completely different animal. Via 2022, an unprecedented quantity of BTC has left exchanges numbering within the a whole lot of 1000’s at a time on events.
Previous to the aftermath of the FTX collapse, a complete of round 300,000 BTC started to go away exchanges beginning at the start of June 2022. Following the collapse, this uptrend of BTC removing from exchanges solely accelerated because the mantra ‘not your keys, not your cash’ took maintain.
The height of the 2018 bear market lasted for round 136 days and noticed a fall in BTC worth of over 80% from its all-time excessive (ATH). When in comparison with BTC worth now – down by round 76% from it’s all-time excessive (ATH) over the past couple of days – chart patterns counsel the height of the 2022 bear market could also be right here.
The Introduction of Derivatives
A stark distinction between the 2018 bear market and the 2022 is the introduction of derivatives to the cryptocurrency market.
With the introduction of futures and choices in 2021, derivatives have since been a basic side of the crypto market – making up an enormous quantity of the crypto ecosystem. Constructed upon $2.5 trillion of derivatives, the worldwide banking system evidences the sheer magnitude derivatives should play within the crypto ecosystem — and the influence they will and do make.
When analyzing earlier bear markets, Cryptoslate have discovered that the underside is in when shorts develop into so aggressive that BTC worth gained’t go down any additional. This has been seen in earlier bear market bottoms, the Covid-19 pandemic fallout, China’s crypto ban of summer time 2021, with the Luna crash, and now with the collapse of FTX.